- Betting online is without a doubt the easiest and most convenient way to place sports wagers. It also offers several distinct advantages over other methods. You can read all about these in the.
- Follow me on twitter - In this video I go over 4 basic sports betting strategies that when implemented will make you.
Winning at sports betting is very challenging indeed. With standard pricing at -110/-110 on most games, the house enjoys over a 4% edge on most bets. That is very hard to overcome, especially since many gamblers struggle to win more than even 50% of their picks. To overcome that edge you must win at a nearly 53% clip.
However, not all games have such a large house edge. These are the lines that can be bet into to show a profit.
Ways to Win at Sports Betting
A simple way to find value in the betting market. In one section of the book, I did manage to beat the bookies. But it wasn’t because I found a magical formula that predicts who will win soccer matches. The basis of my model was far from complicated. Jul 15, 2020 When the oddsmakers release a betting line on a game, the first thing they do is decide which team should be the favorite and which should be the underdog. The favorite is the team that is expected to win the game and will get a minus sign next to its odds, while the underdog is expected to lose and gets a plus sign. Understand the concept of value. If you don't have this, walk away.
Just as the old saying goes, “there are many ways to skin a cat.” There are also many ways to win at sports betting. Let us examine some of these ways now.
Line Shopping and Steam Chasing
Line shopping is an easy way to gain an edge. This method involves looking for sharp, trusted lines (usually from well respected, liquid books) and then finding other sites that are slow to update their lines. This can happen a lot in the last hour before game time. One book may list a team at -3 and then all of the sudden the line starts dropping, first to 2.5 and then all the way down to 2 and finally 1.5. However, while the line is at -2.5 at one book, another may still have -3. This would provide a great opportunity to take the underdog and “chase the steam.”
Check out these selected bookmakers which are known to provide some of the best value odds online, both before and during games:
Terms & Conditions: T&Cs Apply. Full terms apply.
Tailing a Respected Capper
Sometimes, you will find a handicapper who sells or gives away picks who has a solid track record. There are a few reputable sites that offer picks for sale that you can use to profit. Being early is key here, as this can be where the “steam” mentioned above often originates. If a big time syndicate is pounding a line into shape, you want to be in as early as possible, before books catch on and adjust.
Bonuses are in shorter supply than in years past, but there are still good values to be found here. Best Bookmakers sites often offer a “first time deposit” bonus or a reload bonus for players who are depositing. This can be a goldmine when played correctly. It is good to always try and max out the bonus while it is available. So if a book offers a reload bonus of 20% up to a $2000 deposit, it is in your best interest to deposit the full amount and take advantage of the $400 bonus. Signing up for a new book just to get the bonus is often a good play as well. Hunt online for books, talk to your friends, and search forums to find the best bonuses available. Be especially aware of special bonuses during busy times such as the NFL Playoffs or big soccer betting events such as the World Cup, Euros or even the Champions League finals, since books will be highly competitive and vying for your action.
Do It Yourself
You can also “do it yourself” and become a handicapper. However, most, if not all, information that you come up with (widely available information) is already priced into the lines. So, it doesn’t do you much good to look up the weather forecast or the coaches’ records on primetime games or other stats such as rushing yards or goals scored. The bookies, and other smart handicappers, have already pored over all this information and it has been accounted for. But if you are a computer whiz, or good with numbers, you may be able to develop a computer program to crunch tons of numbers in order to come up with an edge. A tip here: the smaller the market, the less attention paid to it, by bookies and other gamblers. So you may have a better shot at finding an edge in a smaller sport or market such as certain props.
Become the Bookie/Bet on an Exchange
Exchange betting is becoming more and more popular nowadays, with the advent of the internet and online books over a decade ago. This can allow you to effectively “become the bookie” and offer other gamblers odds on a certain outcome. Even when taking into account the house commission, this can still prove very profitable.
Let’s look at an example now.
Respected bookmaker A has a MLB baseball game listed as
Team A -130
Team B +110
You are browsing your favorite exchange and see the best available offer at
Team A -145
Team B +100
You decide to put in an offer and put up $105 to win $100 and pick Team B to win. Now the exchange will update to show
Team A -145
Team B +105
Someone decides to take your offer and bets the full $100 to win $105. Even taking into account the house’s cut (2% of all winning bets), you are still in good shape and better off than taking this bet at the well respected Book A. Games which gives real money.
Of course, if you win at sports betting, it is no good unless you ultimately get paid. Make sure you bet with highly respected books for the most part, but don’t be afraid to take a shot at a smaller, up and coming book. Read up online about the book and find out what others are saying. Try the live chat and see what withdrawal options they have. Maybe start off with a small deposit and then withdraw after a few weeks and see how they treat you. If you are getting endless emails and vague answers, it might be best to avoid this book. Initiating a cashout during peak times (NCAA March Madness, Super Bowl, World Cup) might be a good idea, since the books will probably be flush with cash and able to pay to keep the business going.
Things to Avoid
Probably the most important aspect of winning at sports betting is knowing what to avoid. There is a myriad of things to avoid when betting sports. For example, try to avoid paying -110 when -105 is easily available somewhere else. Don’t bet more than normal because you’re stuck for the day/week/month/year. Don’t bet more because the game is on TV. Take any picks with a grain of salt. Most picks, especially picks that are given away, are worth their weight in gold, so 0. Occasionally you’ll find someone worth following, but chances are they are just trying to sucker you in to purchase future “locks” with the promise of a free half-season if they happen to lose.
Avoid betting on your hometown team if it becomes a big deal if you lose. What I mean is that it’s fine to bet on your hometown team, but not if a loss will cause you to automatically bet bigger and bigger on later games that day. Some fans become so emotionally invested that it is best to just watch the game and avoid making a bet. Another solid reason to avoid this is because most local bookies (online and on the streets) will bump the lines to account for heavy action on the hometown team, giving you a worse value.
For the most part, avoid teasers, parlays, and future betting. The same goes for betting in running. These markets do not offer much value, unless you use line shopping or other tactics to scout out a good value. Bookies are too smart and will simply chew you up with the juice over time. The juice is simply too high for teasers, parlays, futures, and live betting for the vast majority of bettors.
There are many things to consider when betting sports. If you are just playing for fun, it is still advantageous to follow the advice listed here, so your money lasts longer and you get more action for your dollar. However, if you are playing professionally, you must take heed of this advice and also do additional work to remain profitable. Topics such as bankroll management and variance come into play for the professional gambler every day. Read more about the Kelly staking plan to answer questions such as “How much should I bet?”
Ready For More?
David Sumpter, a professor of Applied Mathematics, has shown how soccer can be dissected and broken down into numbers, patterns and shapes in his book Soccermatics. Having already developed a betting model, he has now written a two-part article for Pinnacle, exploring the notion of a magical betting formula and how mathematics can be used to get an edge in betting.
There is an urban legend of mathematical modelling of soccer matches. It is the legend of the mathematical genius, the Einstein of gambling, who has worked out the formula for beating the bookmakers and winning money. If only, the legend goes, you can find the tips that this person can provide, the source of the magic equation, you can become rich beyond your wildest dreams.
After I published the book Soccermatics last year, a few people seemed to believe I might hold the magical equation. I would get messages on Twitter and emails to my work address asking me if I could help them with tips and advice. I was a professor of mathematics who had studied soccer, maybe I knew the secret?
A simple way to find value in the betting market
In one section of the book, I did manage to beat the bookies. But it wasn’t because I found a magical formula that predicts who will win soccer matches.
The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else.
The way I did it was much simpler. I looked at the odds and found a very small but significant bias in how they were set. Bookmakers and bettors hadn’t paid enough attention to predicting the draw in soccer.
Maybe it is because of the popularity of the Over/Under markets. Maybe it is because bettors don’t like betting on a draw. But, whatever the explanation, it turned out that draws in the Premier League were not properly priced.
- Read: How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market.
Below is a plot of the real frequency of draws in four seasons of the Premier League (2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, 2014/15) and the prediction of draws implied by the bookmaker’s odds.
This figure is created by taking the odds provided by four leading bookmakers (including Pinnacle), converting odds to implied probabilities and then looking at the difference between the probability of a home win and an away win.
It turns out that when two well-matched teams meet (i.e. the probability of a home win is only slightly bigger than the probability of away win) then draws are under-priced (circles above red line). When matches are skewed so there is a strong a favourite (i.e. the probability of one team or the other winning is larger than the other) then draws are over-priced (circles below red line).
Want it made simpler? If two teams are about as good as each other then the draw could be a value bet. If one team is much stronger than the other, don’t bet on the draw (betting on the favourite is normally the smartest move in this case).
Testing out the theory of under-priced draws
That was what I found by plotting the odds. I then took that observation and made some money from it. Below are profits for this model for the 2015/16 season.
Win Sports En Vivo Por Internet
I tripled my money over the season. Well, actually I didn’t bet throughout the season. But I had doubled my money by Christmas.
Soccermatics came out in May 2016, just as the Premier League was coming to a close. I monitored how it went for my model the season after. Here is the result.
Not so good. There was a small profit to be made in the first few weeks, but then it flatlined for the rest of the season. Not losing money is a small achievement in itself, where the odds are in the bookmaker’s favour, but obviously making money is the objective for most bettors.
Lessons learn from using my model
There are four lessons to be learnt from my model.
Firstly, I didn’t make money by creating a magic formula. Although I did write down a single equation that I then used to decide my bets (it is footnote 17 for chapter 12 in the book if you don’t want to read the rest of it) this equation came from an analysis of the odds.
The basis of my model was far from complicated. It didn’t come from me working out the strength of the teams based on past performance, advanced metrics, expected goals or anything else. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set.
If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Secondly, I wasn’t just lucky. The original model was consistent with the previous four years of bookmaker’s odds. I downloaded my odds from Oddsportal and then double-checked my model against those on football-data.co.uk. I then made a prediction and applied it to the next year and it continued to work.
There is a lot of randomness in betting and it is possible to win for quite a long period of time with luck alone. But this was a long-term trend that was profitable.
Thirdly, nothing lasts forever. In moments of self-aggrandising I like to think that my book led to a market correction. Maybe the traders at Pinnacle and other bookmakers read my book and thought “we’ve been pricing draws wrong. See those odds for Liverpool at home against Manchester United at the weekend….move the draw odds up by 0.1.” That’s all it takes and my small margin disappears.
This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points (this is also something I look at in the book). There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone.
Best Way To Win Money Sports Betting
My fourth and final conclusion is: I am a total idiot. I spent three months developing a betting model. I found a way to win. But instead of placing all my free capital on the model, I published a book with the secret in it, only to see the profits disappear.
Yes, I got paid for writing the book. Yes, I have enjoyed talking about soccer and engaging in the analytics community, but the money would have been nice too.
- How to bet on soccer: The ultimate soccer betting guide.
There is no secret equation for predicting the outcome of soccer matches. Not an equation that ignores the odds, in any case. If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point.
Best Way To Sports Bet
Wisdom of the crowd tells us that the betting market can be hard to beat, but sometimes it makes a few small mistakes. It is these you have to look for.
In part two of this article I will see if I can find one of those cracks using a combination of an expected goals model and potential biases in recent odds.
If you want to learn more about David Sumpter's work you can follow @Soccermatics on Twitter.